Summary
Since the winter of 2021, the global energy system has been reshaped by a series of geopolitical shocks:
the European gas crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the renewed tensions in the Middle East in early 2026.
These events reordered the hierarchy of energy priorities everywhere: Price affordability no longer sits at the top. Physical security does.
This shift – captured clearly in Mr. Jeff Currie’s framework of Security à Affordability à Sustainability, has exposed the structural limits of market‑based energy systems in Europe, the UK, and Korea. The result has been a visible move toward Renationalization. Yet one country stands as a clear exception: the United States.
Japan, meanwhile, will not pursue nationalization; maybe. But given its structural constraints e.g. low resource self‑sufficiency, concentrated fuel procurement, and repeated market stress, it may be pulled toward a different form of structural correction: Reintegration, a return toward pre‑liberalization concentration around major utilities.
We don’t wanna be like them – But structurally, we may be moving in a similar direction.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author, based on personal experience and professional observations in the energy industry. They do not represent the views of any organization with which the author has been affiliated.
Clavis Energy Partners LLC extends its heartfelt condolences to the victims of September 11, 2001, and to all who continue to honor their memory.